Follow us on twitter - @aintreeinfo
Wow ... What a week. We got the National weights and formed a National market. Simon Cowell (Phil Smith) then threw a wildcard in by giving Tidal Bay a featherweight based on his ability. We backed him at 22s on tuesday and laid him at 16s on wednesday (phew!) ... And now Tiday Bay is a non-runner! The impact of this extends far beyond one horse. Even though TB had a real chance of the weight (guaranteed first 3 we reckon), he actually gave everyone else a chance in some ways.
Some of the leading contenders like Teaforthree and Prince De Beauchene are still at the forefront of our minds but we now need to take stock and as the weights go up our attentions have turned to the likes of Magnanimity, Wyck Hill and Chicago Grey with a glance at Tatenen and Tartak. There used to be a theory that two and a half miles went well in the National and this has been franked in recent years by Big Fella Thanks, hence our impending investigation into the latter 2.
Big weights have recently performed well in the big one, but we have a theory that this may be about to change with the changes to the course, in particular the lowering of the core of the fences. I read some concerns last week that horses 'feel' that the fences are lower below them and therefore jump lower and faster. I believe this will give a marginal advantage to lower weighted horses but a few lengths can make all the difference. Let us know your thoughts ...
So on to tomorrows action where a plethora of National wannabee-winners run. At Haydock we have the feature National trial. This is always a dour test usually run on heavy ground and tomorrow is no different. The ones to concentrate on are Teaforthree, Rigadin De Beauchene, Giles Cross, Well Refreshed, Triggerman and Cannington Brook. We predict Rigadin De Beauchene to justify favouritism but Triggerman could be the best value each way. For purely sentimental reasons, we'd love Giles Cross or the hat-trick seeking Silver By Nature to win though.
Our most exciting news is that we are at Haydock tomorrow as exclusive guests of the Scotch Piper syndicate, owners of Across The Bay, who goes in the Rendlesham. He was due to run in the National trial but on ground that is pretty atrocious this is an easier task. With hindsight his performance off top weight in the Welsh National was pretty good considering he had a breathing problem during the race and he has had a breathing operation since. On his 3rd to Big Bucks at Aintree he must have a chance although Trustan Times is probably the one to beat.
Later on the card, National entry Cloudy Lane also goes for the McCain yard in the Walrus Hunter chase although we feel Cottage Oak is the winner.
Over at Ascot, several National entries go in their big h'cap chase. The Rainbow Hunter has the best chance although I do know Tatenen has been aimed at this race for months as his main aim for the season but the ground may have ruined his chance. His owners will be in attendance too as they have Ghizao in the Ascot Chase and also sponsor a later race. Cappa Bleu's connections will be ecstatic with a top 5 finish I reckon as this is definitely a blowout.
That's all for now ... keep an eye on our timeline tomorrow for all the live Haydock action.
Thursday 14 February 2013
Tuesday 12 February 2013
Here comes the flop ! ... Grand National weights revealed
Follow us on twitter @Aintreeinfo
Today saw an absolutely spiffing lunch at The Savoy supplemented by the revealing of the 2013 Grand National weights. Regular blog readers will know my poker analogy of the National. The hands are dealt when the first entries are made ... The 'flop' comes from the announcement of the weights today ... Then the 'river' cards are shown between now and post time where contenders run and can show how well handicapped they are. Of course some 'players' can bluff until the big day itself.
Looking through the weights there is always opinion and conjecture but right at the head of the list is Tidal Bay, who starts us off on a contreversial footing. Simon Cowell (as I like to call the BHA handicapper Phil Smith) has rightly allocated this fella top weight ... But has then compressed everything to him by around 9 pounds. At the 22-ish to 1 available on Betfair he is an immediate stand-out bet and I have invested. I'd rate him around a 12-1 shot but if Ruby jumps on board, he could go off as short as 7-1 on the day. High weights are becoming less of a hindrance these days as the quality of entries increases. Gone are the days of 'Peaty Sandy' running from nearly 3 stone out of the handicap.
I'll do some further analysis over the coming days but my initial shortlist comprises of Teaforthree, Magnanimity, Joncol, Cappa Bleu, Prince De Beauchene and of course, our own Across The Bay, who we'll be following live at Haydock on Saturday with some tweets from the course.
For some excellent coverage of all todays weights and reaction from trainers and owners and a view from Phil Smith as to why he was so kind to Tidal Bay, look at The Guardian Sport website.
http://m.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2013/feb/12/grand-national-weights-lunch-2013
Saturday 2 February 2013
The chase is on !
Pls follow us on Twitter - @Aintreeinfo
Normal service seems to be fully resumed finally after all the weather we've had recently. Hope you all managed to not 'bend the fender' ! We have an exciting weekend of action upcoming with Sandown only managing to race by staging an all-chase card and also we have the West Wales National at Ffos Las.
Before we move onto a quick preview of tomorrows action, we have some exciting news about our linkup with connections of Grand National entry, Across The Bay. We will be following his build-up and will have interviews etc. over the coming weeks. Watch this space. His next intended target is the Haydock National trial in 2 weeks time. Just to report that following his run at Chepstow where he came to challenge a mile out before fading, he has had a breathing op. Jason reported he 'gurgled' badly and was still trying to go but was struggling with breathing. Without this he would almost certainly been in first four. He also had the problem to a lesser extent at Aintree when just touched off by Wayward Prince (also giving 6lb). Hopefully he will be back to normal and having finished at Chepstow, he has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper. He's in good order and the plan is Haydock then Aintree.
Whilst on the subject of Aintree, it was the first declaration stage this week. 84 horses have been entered with no real surprises. Prince De Beauchene deserves to be one of the market leaders. He won very well in a conditions hurdle over the festive break, showed good form winning the Bobbyjo before injury last year and won the competitive h'cap preceding the National a few years back so appears a spring horse. He is still potentially well treated due to his low mileage. I still think Ballabriggs has a say and Cappa Blue will be tiptop come the day. I hate speculating before the next stage as racing's Simon Cowell, Mr Phil Smith has to have his say, though it is good to see his recent trend of giving the old-timers a chance.
Onto Sandown ... in the Masters chase there are 3 National entries, the potentially classy Roberto Goldback, Summery Justice and the frustrating Viking Blond. Cases could be made for the former and latter here but Keppols Hill is certainly the one to beat (owned by the very good Timeform Betfair racing club, worth a look if you'd like to be an owner without all the expense, contact @Matthew_booth from Betfair, good guy I had the pleasure of sharing a table at Aintree with a few years back ... no nonsense!)
Meanwhile over at Ffos Las we have a National ... the geographically accurate West Wales National has our interest. Only Summery Justice (2nd preference) has an Aintree entry which is surprising, given that Junior, Cannington Brook and Alfie Spinner are in the race. Cannington Brook probably needs softer ground than likely at Aintree. Alfie Sherrin has time on his side and his Sandown disappointment probably ruled him out. For me, Junior is a surprise omission rom Aintree although he probably missed his opportunity 2 years ago after bolting up at Cheltenham but then missing out due to being too low in the weights. Given a run, I believe he would have been in the top 6 home that year. His win in the softlooking Rehearsal at Newcastle and a further 3lb rise certainly hasn't helped. As its a National though we feel compelled to preview. We think Alfie Sherrin has a great chance if bouncing back. Cannington Brook is probably best on the ground. Shaking Hands may improve but we really like Our Island (picured) at the price. Can't see anything outside those 4.
Over in Ireland tomorrow its interesting that no National entries are running in their trial but 2 go in the cross country race, Bostons Angel and Shakervilz. The one to watch may be Jessica Harrington's charge who has been very disappointing since winning an RSA. His spark is slowly returning.
Happy punting and enjoy the action.
Normal service seems to be fully resumed finally after all the weather we've had recently. Hope you all managed to not 'bend the fender' ! We have an exciting weekend of action upcoming with Sandown only managing to race by staging an all-chase card and also we have the West Wales National at Ffos Las.
Before we move onto a quick preview of tomorrows action, we have some exciting news about our linkup with connections of Grand National entry, Across The Bay. We will be following his build-up and will have interviews etc. over the coming weeks. Watch this space. His next intended target is the Haydock National trial in 2 weeks time. Just to report that following his run at Chepstow where he came to challenge a mile out before fading, he has had a breathing op. Jason reported he 'gurgled' badly and was still trying to go but was struggling with breathing. Without this he would almost certainly been in first four. He also had the problem to a lesser extent at Aintree when just touched off by Wayward Prince (also giving 6lb). Hopefully he will be back to normal and having finished at Chepstow, he has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper. He's in good order and the plan is Haydock then Aintree.
Whilst on the subject of Aintree, it was the first declaration stage this week. 84 horses have been entered with no real surprises. Prince De Beauchene deserves to be one of the market leaders. He won very well in a conditions hurdle over the festive break, showed good form winning the Bobbyjo before injury last year and won the competitive h'cap preceding the National a few years back so appears a spring horse. He is still potentially well treated due to his low mileage. I still think Ballabriggs has a say and Cappa Blue will be tiptop come the day. I hate speculating before the next stage as racing's Simon Cowell, Mr Phil Smith has to have his say, though it is good to see his recent trend of giving the old-timers a chance.
Onto Sandown ... in the Masters chase there are 3 National entries, the potentially classy Roberto Goldback, Summery Justice and the frustrating Viking Blond. Cases could be made for the former and latter here but Keppols Hill is certainly the one to beat (owned by the very good Timeform Betfair racing club, worth a look if you'd like to be an owner without all the expense, contact @Matthew_booth from Betfair, good guy I had the pleasure of sharing a table at Aintree with a few years back ... no nonsense!)
Meanwhile over at Ffos Las we have a National ... the geographically accurate West Wales National has our interest. Only Summery Justice (2nd preference) has an Aintree entry which is surprising, given that Junior, Cannington Brook and Alfie Spinner are in the race. Cannington Brook probably needs softer ground than likely at Aintree. Alfie Sherrin has time on his side and his Sandown disappointment probably ruled him out. For me, Junior is a surprise omission rom Aintree although he probably missed his opportunity 2 years ago after bolting up at Cheltenham but then missing out due to being too low in the weights. Given a run, I believe he would have been in the top 6 home that year. His win in the softlooking Rehearsal at Newcastle and a further 3lb rise certainly hasn't helped. As its a National though we feel compelled to preview. We think Alfie Sherrin has a great chance if bouncing back. Cannington Brook is probably best on the ground. Shaking Hands may improve but we really like Our Island (picured) at the price. Can't see anything outside those 4.
Over in Ireland tomorrow its interesting that no National entries are running in their trial but 2 go in the cross country race, Bostons Angel and Shakervilz. The one to watch may be Jessica Harrington's charge who has been very disappointing since winning an RSA. His spark is slowly returning.
Happy punting and enjoy the action.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)