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Morning all. With the weather still bitting hard it's good to finally have some decent action today. I'll come on to the Thyestes preview later.
Before I do, just a quick recap on the Classic Chase. For readers of the blog I stated you should ignore Venetia's runners at your peril ... but unfortunately then ignored Rigadin De Beauchene ... and the half-brother to Miko De Beauchene obviously heeded my 'kiss of death comment' and duly obliged. I'm still to be convinced that was a 'Classic' renewal of the 'Classic' Chase, although obviously the 3 at the front are on the upgrade. I think the one most to take from the race going forward is Godsmejudge who looked all over the winner until the last furlong and is the most unexposed. The JLT Speciality Chase or the Amateurs race at Cheltenham could be likely targets. Bradley seriously disappointed and something is wrong there. On the Warwick undercard, the Pertemps Qualifier had some National types in it and there was a tale of ups and downs there. The Package ran very well without winning but Sunnhillboy didn't go a yard.
Onto a quick preview of the Thyestes. Traditionally viewed as one of the major Irish mid-season handicaps, along with the Bobbyjo it's also one of the key Grand National trials with Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde amongst the winners in the last decade. This year doesn't appear to have the strongest field with the top-rated being around 8lbs lower than the last few renewals. I think the top 3 are high enough and although Bishopsfurze is undoubtedly the class horse of the race he's a bit short for me at around 6-1. The Westerner Boy could be anything and the booking of AP is significant. JP and AP teamed up to boot home the unexposed Colbert Station at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting and a similar plot looks on the cards here. The market may be the best guide here but I wouldn't put anyone off backing him e/w at the current 8-1. My main fancy is Medical Card. Never fallen and a touch of class about him, he beat a good field in the Woodlands Park Novice Chase last year and after a few PU's and a warm-up in the Troytown, he has slipped down the ratings a few pounds. 25-1 is a massive price if he has a going day.
Tulintain was second in this last year off only 2lbs lower, his 2nd in the Tim Duggan is good form and he appears to have been primed with this race in mind. Could go close. Jadanli was also placed in this last year and this is his lowest mark for a while. Ignore his Welsh National run as I'm sure that was a warm-up for this. The next few are passed over and Panther Claw could be anything but the lack of fencing experience puts me off at a short price. Gordon Elliott gives Tarquinius little hope in his Betfair blog reading between the lines. The last 2 of worthy consideration are JPs two, In Great Form and Outlaw Pete. The former has ran very consistently and seems to be developing into a thorough stayer. This may not be far enough for this fella soon! I do give him a chance though. Outlaw Pete seems to have sparkled since being tried over the 'Cheltenham Fairground' track. Will a return to normal fences excite him enough? .... I'm not sure.
My first 4 home are Medical Card, In Great Form, Tulintain and Bishopsfurze.
Thursday 24 January 2013
Thursday 10 January 2013
When Saturday Comes .... Classic Chase preview
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With every Saturday that passes the Aintree picture is starting to build. Some horses are clearly being focused to try and win these 'trials' while others are being run to keep them ticking over and hey-ho, if their handicap mark falls in the meantime then so be it. With two very lacklustre runs so far this term, I'm feeling that last year's winner of our feature race this week, Hey Big Spender, falls firmly in the latter camp although we're keeping our eye on him still for Aintree.
The Classic Chase was first run in 2004, although a few runnings have been lost to the weather. Good luck in finding trends as the runnings so far have gone to horses aged 7, 8, 9, 10 & 11 and weights between 10-1 and 11-12. The only guarantee about this race is that it's always going to be soft or heavy. With this in mind, anything declared by trainers here will have been aimed at the race with the ground in mind and even if no previous experience, it must be expected to go on the ground. Mr Frisk would never have been declared for this one ! Early enough still for unexposed second-season chasers, it's never easy finding the winner. The ground this year appears to be genuine soft ... decent jumping ground, unless any late rains come and the track has also been 'slit' this week to help the situation.
Starting at the top Aurora's Encore has claims on his game Scottish National 2nd but has struggled since, appears to prefer better ground and even with his drop in the ratings I can't have him here. Restless Harry has his first try in h'cap company here. A frustrating type, he can be hot and cold. I'm not convinced he's anywhere as good over the big obstacles but he is well treated if recreating his best hurdle form. Based on him never going over this distance too, a place could be achievable but I wouldn't be confident of the win. Robin Dickin seems bullish today though on sportinglife.com and this is the one I leave out with most regret. Bradley is of huge interest. He looks a proper stayer, as proved by his runs at Haydock and Cheltenham and keeps improving. The form of his 2nd to Monbeg Dude is also looking good quite now. He can be forgiven his run last time after some mistakes. Fergal O'Brien commented today :
Pete The Feat is turning out to be this year's 'Hunt Ball', improving nearly 3 stone since being transferred to Charlie Longsdon. As we found out last year, horses can keep improving but this race is 'Premiership' not 'Championship' - he won the Mandarin last time but 7/2 is way too short for me.
Just as a side note, what have they done to that race over the years apart from nearly kill it ? It used to be a grand old handicap run in February I think. I recall Maori Venture won it on the way to his National success (I know because I backed him in both as a sprightly teenager ... those were the days when as long as you looked like you might grow some 'bum-fluff' on yer chops, the slip was always greeted over the counter with a 'between-me-and-you' wry smile). Looking back at Hill Trix's win in 1995, the prize money was about the same as the recent race ! I think it was then dropped for a few years in the early part of the last decade and brought back in 2008 as a Graduation chase, won by the likes of Carruthers and Gone To Lunch (1st prize £19k) and now for the last 2 years is back to a handicap with a first prize of £7k. A sad demise for a race that is supposed to be a fitting tribute to one of Newbury's greatest. I'm all for changes to the pattern but NH should maybe protect some of these old handicaps and take a leaf out of the flat's book by making them 'Heritage' races. Other notables I can think of that have been downgraded or virtually gone by the wayside over the years are the Edward Hanmer and Tommy Whittle chases at Haydock, the Brown Chamberlain at Newbury and the Eckbalco hurdle at Newcastle. Rant over .... back to this week's business.
Quentin Collonges is one to watch with interest, he finished his hurdle career with a defeat of Galaxy Rock (levels) at Doncaster before coming 6th in the M.C.P. race at Cheltenham Festival. He then had a decent novice season last year, before being sent off at far too short a price for the Scottish National and was pulled up. Henry Daly would not have tried him at Ayr if he thought he was a non-stayer and his last run looked like a pipe-opener but the ground is a concern. Wellforth is one of those Irish raiders that could surprise. He'll certainly act on the ground but is plenty high enough, therefore is dismissed.
Alan King has grown a liking for this race, winning it with D'Argent and West End Rocker. It's quite interesting he sends a novice here in Godsmejudge who has only competed over fences 3 times (2 beginners and 1 h'cap where well beaten). I'm sure this horse can improve but it's a big ask for such inexperience to go well here. Sea Saffron appears to like a trip but is not young enough, not light enough and not good enough. I hope the owners have a great day, although I must compliment the trainer on doing a fantastic job to achieve such success and get him into a race like this. He has been placed very well for his wins. He might have had an each-way squeak if this was run at Exeter.
Beware Venetia's runners at your peril ! ....... except maybe this one. Rigadin De Beauchene is on the upgrade and the ground looks in his favour but may not be good enough in this grade, particularly as his jumping can cost him. Also the fact Aidan has defected is a negative. Finally we come to Mrs S Gardner's second runner, Flying Award. For such a small stable, she has a very good strike rate and this fella completed a double at Exeter for the yard on New Year's Day. Usually ridden by her daughter, the booking of @AidanColeman shows ambition and he has ticks in the 'trip' and 'ground' boxes and has never failed to complete. Could be the dark horse of the race and as Emilio the butler in Mr Deeds said "I fear you are underestimating the sneakiness sir " (... and by the way if you haven't seen the film, it's a must-watch)
In summary, this is a very competitive contest. Seven of the thirteen runners were placed 1st or 2nd last time out so a few people will disappointed at around 3.45pm on Saturday.
Our first three home are : Bradley, Universal Soldier & Major Malarkey
Each way selection : Flying Award
Almost of equal interest is the Pertemps Qualifier on the same card which could feature several National contenders all looking to get a run and protect their chase mark. Don't expect any of them to be winning here but a staying-on 4th or 5th would be a great result for any of them, particularly we must observe Sunnhillboy if he competes.
Back on monday with the 'post-match analysis' - happy punting !
If you enjoyed this article why not read some of our earlier ones, particularly our 2 posts on the Grand National changes and challengers.
| "Very, Very Sneaky" |
Pls follow us on twitter - @Aintreeinfo - and RT if you like what you see - or comment if you don't
With every Saturday that passes the Aintree picture is starting to build. Some horses are clearly being focused to try and win these 'trials' while others are being run to keep them ticking over and hey-ho, if their handicap mark falls in the meantime then so be it. With two very lacklustre runs so far this term, I'm feeling that last year's winner of our feature race this week, Hey Big Spender, falls firmly in the latter camp although we're keeping our eye on him still for Aintree.
The Classic Chase was first run in 2004, although a few runnings have been lost to the weather. Good luck in finding trends as the runnings so far have gone to horses aged 7, 8, 9, 10 & 11 and weights between 10-1 and 11-12. The only guarantee about this race is that it's always going to be soft or heavy. With this in mind, anything declared by trainers here will have been aimed at the race with the ground in mind and even if no previous experience, it must be expected to go on the ground. Mr Frisk would never have been declared for this one ! Early enough still for unexposed second-season chasers, it's never easy finding the winner. The ground this year appears to be genuine soft ... decent jumping ground, unless any late rains come and the track has also been 'slit' this week to help the situation.
Starting at the top Aurora's Encore has claims on his game Scottish National 2nd but has struggled since, appears to prefer better ground and even with his drop in the ratings I can't have him here. Restless Harry has his first try in h'cap company here. A frustrating type, he can be hot and cold. I'm not convinced he's anywhere as good over the big obstacles but he is well treated if recreating his best hurdle form. Based on him never going over this distance too, a place could be achievable but I wouldn't be confident of the win. Robin Dickin seems bullish today though on sportinglife.com and this is the one I leave out with most regret. Bradley is of huge interest. He looks a proper stayer, as proved by his runs at Haydock and Cheltenham and keeps improving. The form of his 2nd to Monbeg Dude is also looking good quite now. He can be forgiven his run last time after some mistakes. Fergal O'Brien commented today :
"His form with Monbeg Dude does look good now, and he has been solid all season apart from his last run, which we just want to put behind us.Universal Soldier also fits the 'improving' bill. Not the most experienced over fences, his 7th in the 4-miler at the festival and his 2nd at Haydock are solid and his mark hasn't really moved much while the handicapper gets his head around this one. Could go very well and at the current prices I'd say he's the value bet of the race. Benheir is in the same ownership as Teaforthree and connections go for their second big staying chase within a week after narrowly missing out last saturday. Although a novice, he has now had 6 outings over fences (won or placed 4 times) since October though a rise and the lack of a claim may put an end to his good run. Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to a have a conveyer belt of these mud-loving, staying chasers like Major Malarkey. Fourth in this last year, he was also second in the Midlands Grand National and last time out in the London Grand National (a very grand title indeed for an average h'cap), he certainly has the right profile but my doubts are his now career-high mark and ability to improve further as a ten year old. Place claims.
I don't think he was himself that day what with one or two niggles, but if he puts his best foot forward he can run a big race.
He goes on any sort of ground and ran well at the course last year when he was second in a hunter chase to a good horse in Monkerty Tunkerty "
Pete The Feat is turning out to be this year's 'Hunt Ball', improving nearly 3 stone since being transferred to Charlie Longsdon. As we found out last year, horses can keep improving but this race is 'Premiership' not 'Championship' - he won the Mandarin last time but 7/2 is way too short for me.
Just as a side note, what have they done to that race over the years apart from nearly kill it ? It used to be a grand old handicap run in February I think. I recall Maori Venture won it on the way to his National success (I know because I backed him in both as a sprightly teenager ... those were the days when as long as you looked like you might grow some 'bum-fluff' on yer chops, the slip was always greeted over the counter with a 'between-me-and-you' wry smile). Looking back at Hill Trix's win in 1995, the prize money was about the same as the recent race ! I think it was then dropped for a few years in the early part of the last decade and brought back in 2008 as a Graduation chase, won by the likes of Carruthers and Gone To Lunch (1st prize £19k) and now for the last 2 years is back to a handicap with a first prize of £7k. A sad demise for a race that is supposed to be a fitting tribute to one of Newbury's greatest. I'm all for changes to the pattern but NH should maybe protect some of these old handicaps and take a leaf out of the flat's book by making them 'Heritage' races. Other notables I can think of that have been downgraded or virtually gone by the wayside over the years are the Edward Hanmer and Tommy Whittle chases at Haydock, the Brown Chamberlain at Newbury and the Eckbalco hurdle at Newcastle. Rant over .... back to this week's business.
Quentin Collonges is one to watch with interest, he finished his hurdle career with a defeat of Galaxy Rock (levels) at Doncaster before coming 6th in the M.C.P. race at Cheltenham Festival. He then had a decent novice season last year, before being sent off at far too short a price for the Scottish National and was pulled up. Henry Daly would not have tried him at Ayr if he thought he was a non-stayer and his last run looked like a pipe-opener but the ground is a concern. Wellforth is one of those Irish raiders that could surprise. He'll certainly act on the ground but is plenty high enough, therefore is dismissed.
Alan King has grown a liking for this race, winning it with D'Argent and West End Rocker. It's quite interesting he sends a novice here in Godsmejudge who has only competed over fences 3 times (2 beginners and 1 h'cap where well beaten). I'm sure this horse can improve but it's a big ask for such inexperience to go well here. Sea Saffron appears to like a trip but is not young enough, not light enough and not good enough. I hope the owners have a great day, although I must compliment the trainer on doing a fantastic job to achieve such success and get him into a race like this. He has been placed very well for his wins. He might have had an each-way squeak if this was run at Exeter.
Beware Venetia's runners at your peril ! ....... except maybe this one. Rigadin De Beauchene is on the upgrade and the ground looks in his favour but may not be good enough in this grade, particularly as his jumping can cost him. Also the fact Aidan has defected is a negative. Finally we come to Mrs S Gardner's second runner, Flying Award. For such a small stable, she has a very good strike rate and this fella completed a double at Exeter for the yard on New Year's Day. Usually ridden by her daughter, the booking of @AidanColeman shows ambition and he has ticks in the 'trip' and 'ground' boxes and has never failed to complete. Could be the dark horse of the race and as Emilio the butler in Mr Deeds said "I fear you are underestimating the sneakiness sir " (... and by the way if you haven't seen the film, it's a must-watch)
In summary, this is a very competitive contest. Seven of the thirteen runners were placed 1st or 2nd last time out so a few people will disappointed at around 3.45pm on Saturday.
Our first three home are : Bradley, Universal Soldier & Major Malarkey
Each way selection : Flying Award
Almost of equal interest is the Pertemps Qualifier on the same card which could feature several National contenders all looking to get a run and protect their chase mark. Don't expect any of them to be winning here but a staying-on 4th or 5th would be a great result for any of them, particularly we must observe Sunnhillboy if he competes.
Back on monday with the 'post-match analysis' - happy punting !
If you enjoyed this article why not read some of our earlier ones, particularly our 2 posts on the Grand National changes and challengers.
Tuesday 8 January 2013
Tea not quite brewed ....... gets collared by the Dude !
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Well after a slight delay, we saw a great Welsh National. That's the last big National till Aintree. We do however, have the likes of the Peter Marsh, Haydock trial, Racing Post, Grimthorpe and of course a few races at Cheltenham to look forward to.
Looking back first though, what did we learn this weekend?
 |
| The fight to the line A thrilling end to the Welsh National saw Monbeg Dude triumphant under a patient, cool ride from Paul Carberry. Defintely one of the rides of the year .... and it's only the first week in January. What did surprise me was a) the number of finishers at 9 (we predicted 6-8) and b) the way the 2 at the front finished, given the state of the ground. Monbeg Dude is now being primed for the Haydock National trial, with Michael Scudamore confirming they are in no rush to get to Aintree this year, it's just one step at a time. Teaforthree ran with huge credit in second and our main pick for the National proper, travelled and jumped well and was given every chance by AP. We watch with interest as to what the handicapper thinks of that run. AHEM ...we'd just like to say we predicted the first 2 home in Friday's preview .... just in the wrong order! We also gave Arbor Supreme as an e/w and he ran with great credit and seems to be coming back to some form. It would be good to see him run in something like the Cross-country at Cheltenham. In 3rd place was Triggerman, who ran fantastically till fading, on ground he'd never before encountered. One to watch next time out. Behind those, Our Island ran quite well and the rest were somewhat strung out. Our friend's horse, Across The Bay, ran as well as can be expected, with Jason trying to get him into it a mile from home before the burden of top-weight told. |
Over at Sandown, Katenko won their big chase and is one to keep on-side. Venetia is having a fantastic run of winners and @AidanColeman is doing a great job of booting them home, with them having a double at Taunton yesterday. Great jockey. At only 7, the powder may be kept dry as far as Aintree is concerned for now. The big disappointment was Alfie Spinner, who bypassed Chepstow to come here and with the money also behind him, was a flop. Let's hope he can bounce back. Hey Big Spender seems to be running to get his mark mark down after a great season last year and must be watched closely, with the wily Tizzard's looking after him. Gullible Gordon was a complete let-down after a promising Becher run.
Finally, a mention must be made of one of our old favourites going in at Wincanton. Big Fella Thanks finally got his head in front again after almost 3 years without a win. Saying that, it was predictable now that he has left Ferdy's yard, although he did have his career-high rating whilst there. We would love to see him have another crack at the big one this year and hopefully Phil Smith will give him a break now he's eleven. The immediate response from @CathrynFry (worth a follow) on Twitter was that he would win the Topham doing handstands! A view confirmed pretty quickly by the trainer who said :
"At this stage I'd be more inclined to run him in the Topham instead because even when he ran in the Becher earlier this season he looked all over the winner at the elbow but didn't get home. The way he jumps round there you'd have to think he'd take a lot of beating in the Topham but we'll have a sit down with the owners and discuss"
Agreed, he would go very well in that race but Tom George could send an 'Armada' to the race (Nacarat, Tartak, BFT) and for me Tartak would be the obvious choice given he has jumped the fences in last year's Topham, is now slipping down the ratings, is best around the distance and has completed every race he has taken part in. Let's hope he does send them all just for interest .... what price an '@TomGeorgeRacingTricast' ?
The picture is building and there are now only 3 months til Aintree ..... Bring it on !!
We'll be back on friday with a look at this weekend's key #GN2013 action, including a preview of the Classic Chase from Warwick.
We'll be back on friday with a look at this weekend's key #GN2013 action, including a preview of the Classic Chase from Warwick.
PS. we are steadily creeping towards our first milestone of 500 followers and still have 2 free bets up for grabs as mentioned in our Grand National Part 2 blog - keep retweeting and following please,
thanks,
@Aintreeinfo
Friday 4 January 2013
Tea-time ! ... Welsh National preview
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Welcome to our preview of the 2012 Welsh National (being run in 2013 !). Before we start, just a reminder that are still 2 x free £5 bets for the Grand National to be released when we get to 500 followers so please help us get there and Retweet (full details in our previous post).
One of the mid-season staying highlights, this race is a long-term target for many horses due to the fact that the ground is usually predictable, being soft or heavy. This feels like a slightly sub-standard renewal as the top weight is usually a few pounds higher, as is the average. The report for the going stick was 3.3 on Thursday at 3pm, which is as low as I can recall so this could be brutal with probably only around 6-8 finishers. If you can resist, this may be best watched .... if not, make sure the sink stays in the kitchen !
Starting at the top of the handicap, Across The Bay is a horse I can speak about with some authority as I know one of the owners. They brought this horse back from Ireland and have had great fun with him since. Last year he went down the hurdling route and had a great season culminating in his 3rd to Big Bucks at our beloved Aintree. Since then he has gone back chasing and really shone, winning at Kelso and Carlisle followed by a 2nd to Wayward Prince (btn 2 1/2L and giving 6lb). For me he is too high in the weights, but has kept improving. He has been aimed at this race since Aintree, indeed if he won there he would have gone to the Lexus, such is Donald's view of his ability. He's fit and well, so fingers crossed for the syndicate as I'd love him to go close.
Next on the list is Giles Cross. Second in this race the last 2 runnings, his form is staggering in that he has never been out of the first 3 home when completing. He has also won a Southern National and the National trial at Haydock and gets his favoured ground here. Vic Dartnall's stable has had the herpes issue recently but it's been confirmed Giles Cross was unaffected and was moved out at the peak of the outbreak. Must go well if fit, even off his career high mark, with only the lack of a prep run against him. I can see him finishing in the places.
Teaforthree is on the same mark and also has a big chance. He is our current tip for the Grand National (pre the weights being released). His form figures at Chepstow are 2311 so he certainly likes it here, including one win on heavy ground. This race has been his aim since the end of last year and quotes from Rebecca Curtis also adds to his claims:
I don't think I can find a negative but at 3/1 he's a little short to back in a marathon slog.
Michel Le Bon has claims but with ground and trip uncertain has too many questions to answer although he did go well last time. The lightly raced Soll really is an unknown quantity. Fancied for the NH Chase and going well when brought down, his last run in the Hennessy looked very much a pipe-opener and a one-paced 8th gives encouragement for this longer trip. With form on the ground, he is one for the shortlist and there are good vibes around for him. Universal Soldier is improving and looks like a stayer. Favourite for this last year when 5lb higher, Viking Blond has course and ground form but has something to prove. Master Overseer is a Midlands and Sussex National winner and is a dour stayer who won well last time, could go close.
Jadanli certainly has ground and distances boxes ticked but this is tougher. Mon Mome has been in the handicappers grip since his Aintree win and still may not be low enough, especially as a 13-y-o. Triggerman has never ran on ground like this so is passed over. Monbeg Dude is lightly raced having only had 5 runs over fences and is on the upgrade. There was a lot to like about his Cheltenham win and a light weight on this ground could be a bonus. Harouet is another who likes a trip and the ground but his Carlisle win could be his big day this season. Sona Sasta has great claims based on his last run. The worry is his inconsistency but again ground and trip appear right and he won here last time out. Our Island is very experienced for a supposed novice, having run over fences 12 times now, completing in all but one. He has places in some good races and ran with credit in the NH Chase and this race last year, but just seems to be wanting at this level. Incentivise is another with trip and ground credentials although I'm not sure he'd be lining up for the stable, but for the injury to Le Beau Bai. Arbor Supreme is of massive interest if the form of his last run is maintained and could be the each way bet of the race. Jonjo's only runner in a race he does well with for JP (Synchronised, Mini Sensation), he is a veteran chaser with in and out form and was 33lb higer when last running in this 2 years ago, but anything close to the form of his 2nd to The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo Chase and he wins here.
In summary, there are many horses with positives around the trip and ground. Our guess at the first 4 home is Teaforthree, Monbeg Dude, Soll and Giles Cross. Interesting each ways are Master Overseer and Arbor Supreme.
Good luck sorting this one out ..... let us know your fancies below or via our Twitter page. Although the main action is at Chepstow we are also keeping a particular eye on the last race at Sandown too, which involves 3 horses highlighted in our recent 'Challengers' blog.
Welcome to our preview of the 2012 Welsh National (being run in 2013 !). Before we start, just a reminder that are still 2 x free £5 bets for the Grand National to be released when we get to 500 followers so please help us get there and Retweet (full details in our previous post).
One of the mid-season staying highlights, this race is a long-term target for many horses due to the fact that the ground is usually predictable, being soft or heavy. This feels like a slightly sub-standard renewal as the top weight is usually a few pounds higher, as is the average. The report for the going stick was 3.3 on Thursday at 3pm, which is as low as I can recall so this could be brutal with probably only around 6-8 finishers. If you can resist, this may be best watched .... if not, make sure the sink stays in the kitchen !
Starting at the top of the handicap, Across The Bay is a horse I can speak about with some authority as I know one of the owners. They brought this horse back from Ireland and have had great fun with him since. Last year he went down the hurdling route and had a great season culminating in his 3rd to Big Bucks at our beloved Aintree. Since then he has gone back chasing and really shone, winning at Kelso and Carlisle followed by a 2nd to Wayward Prince (btn 2 1/2L and giving 6lb). For me he is too high in the weights, but has kept improving. He has been aimed at this race since Aintree, indeed if he won there he would have gone to the Lexus, such is Donald's view of his ability. He's fit and well, so fingers crossed for the syndicate as I'd love him to go close.
Next on the list is Giles Cross. Second in this race the last 2 runnings, his form is staggering in that he has never been out of the first 3 home when completing. He has also won a Southern National and the National trial at Haydock and gets his favoured ground here. Vic Dartnall's stable has had the herpes issue recently but it's been confirmed Giles Cross was unaffected and was moved out at the peak of the outbreak. Must go well if fit, even off his career high mark, with only the lack of a prep run against him. I can see him finishing in the places.
Teaforthree is on the same mark and also has a big chance. He is our current tip for the Grand National (pre the weights being released). His form figures at Chepstow are 2311 so he certainly likes it here, including one win on heavy ground. This race has been his aim since the end of last year and quotes from Rebecca Curtis also adds to his claims:
"His main asset is his jumping - he's brilliant - and obviously he stays forever and acts on heavy ground. Everything should be in his favour"
| Teaforthree and Rebecca Curtis |
I don't think I can find a negative but at 3/1 he's a little short to back in a marathon slog.
Michel Le Bon has claims but with ground and trip uncertain has too many questions to answer although he did go well last time. The lightly raced Soll really is an unknown quantity. Fancied for the NH Chase and going well when brought down, his last run in the Hennessy looked very much a pipe-opener and a one-paced 8th gives encouragement for this longer trip. With form on the ground, he is one for the shortlist and there are good vibes around for him. Universal Soldier is improving and looks like a stayer. Favourite for this last year when 5lb higher, Viking Blond has course and ground form but has something to prove. Master Overseer is a Midlands and Sussex National winner and is a dour stayer who won well last time, could go close.
Jadanli certainly has ground and distances boxes ticked but this is tougher. Mon Mome has been in the handicappers grip since his Aintree win and still may not be low enough, especially as a 13-y-o. Triggerman has never ran on ground like this so is passed over. Monbeg Dude is lightly raced having only had 5 runs over fences and is on the upgrade. There was a lot to like about his Cheltenham win and a light weight on this ground could be a bonus. Harouet is another who likes a trip and the ground but his Carlisle win could be his big day this season. Sona Sasta has great claims based on his last run. The worry is his inconsistency but again ground and trip appear right and he won here last time out. Our Island is very experienced for a supposed novice, having run over fences 12 times now, completing in all but one. He has places in some good races and ran with credit in the NH Chase and this race last year, but just seems to be wanting at this level. Incentivise is another with trip and ground credentials although I'm not sure he'd be lining up for the stable, but for the injury to Le Beau Bai. Arbor Supreme is of massive interest if the form of his last run is maintained and could be the each way bet of the race. Jonjo's only runner in a race he does well with for JP (Synchronised, Mini Sensation), he is a veteran chaser with in and out form and was 33lb higer when last running in this 2 years ago, but anything close to the form of his 2nd to The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo Chase and he wins here.
In summary, there are many horses with positives around the trip and ground. Our guess at the first 4 home is Teaforthree, Monbeg Dude, Soll and Giles Cross. Interesting each ways are Master Overseer and Arbor Supreme.
Good luck sorting this one out ..... let us know your fancies below or via our Twitter page. Although the main action is at Chepstow we are also keeping a particular eye on the last race at Sandown too, which involves 3 horses highlighted in our recent 'Challengers' blog.
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